جهت مشاهده چکیده تز دکتری تخصصی(PhD) جناب آقای دکتر علی محمدی پور، لطفا بر روی عنوان این مطلب کلیک فرمایید.
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PhD's Theses on Economic Sciences
Subject:
Studying of the oil price effects and energy carriers on Iranian's economy by using Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE Technique)
Dr. Ali Mohammadipour
Abstract:
This dissertation has developed a New Keynesian DSGE model to study in Iran economy and effects energy carrier prices shocks to the economy. In constructing the model, dependence of Iran economy on Energy carriers has been accounted for. Energy carriers have been modeled both in the household budget section and in the production sector.
The data in this article are related to the fixed prices in the quarter 2011 and run annually from 2002 to 2016 in a per capita basis. Having logarithms taken, the variables are de-traded through Hodrick- Prescott filter.
The final model equations are linearized around the steady state and using Uhlig (1999) approach, accidental equations are also linearized and are specified as space state pattern in Matlab software. Finally, the calibration of parameters are assessed, variables are simulated and compared with real data.
By designing a simple New Keynesian model based on the theoretical foundations, the impacts of energy carrier prices shocks on the macroeconomic variables (output and inflation) in Iran's economy has been analyzed.
The results show that the introduced model can simulate the impact of shocks on macroeconomic variables. It also shows that the inflation rises in response to energy carrier prices shocks. As the figures show, we also find that non-oil output decreases in response energy carrier prices shocks. Finally, inflation and non-oil output are shown the most variations by the price increasing on natural gas, diesel fuel and gasoline.
Using SWOT technique, various dimensions of energy strategies in Iran have been investigated and the changes that have been made through the use of diverse macro policies in the form of creating a decision matrix have been analyzed. The main results of this study are the necessity to formulate a strategic energy plan for Iran in the framework of sustainable development, in line with the global energy program and emphasize the need for a comprehensive approach to the replacement of renewable energies with fossil fuels.
Key words:
Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model, Calibration in DSGE patterns, Energy carriers, Strategic planning (Harvard model - analytical methodology SWOT) and Sustainable development.
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